Forget the Rainbow, Drive on the Ground
By Chip Tsao | published Mar 04, 2010
The campaign for a de-facto referendum as a result of a mini-mass resignation of five legislators seems to be running out of steam. The pan-democrats are deeply worried about a low turnout rate on May 16, after the Democratic Party decided to stay away from the heat and the pro-Beijing camp called for a total boycott of the by-election. If very few people get to the ballot box on polling day, the referendum will be reduced to a flop. The overwhelming majority of Hong Kong people have more or less accepted the fate handed down by Beijing that universal suffrage in 2012 (what these legislators are demanding) is now impossible. As Margaret Thatcher says, “Never get into a room until you know how to get out of it.” By forcing this referendum, the five rebels have put themselves on a highway to nowhere, but now it’s too late for them to stop.
But politics is a funny game. When things get gloomy, there is always a silver lining. Politics is not all just about holding idealistic philosophical positions and objectives for the long term, such as universal suffrage, but more about achieving short-term goals like seizing more seats in the legislature for the pro-democracy alliance in 2012. If they secured more than one-third of the seats, the pan-democrats would be in a strong position to bargain for their causes. If they win half, it would result in a de-facto coalition government.
China knows this well. That’s why they insist on half of the legislative seats coming from functional constituencies. Chief Executive Donald Tsang has proposed an increase of 10 more legislative seats from the present 60; five directly elected by the public, and five directly elected by district councilors—a move his government boasts of as inspired by the American electoral college system.
Let’s imagine it was someone like Chris Patten who was in charge of this take-it-or-leave-it challenge. What would the Brits have done if they were presented with this puzzle? My guess is they would accept the challenge; it’d be like working out a crossword, trying to outwit your challenger to make the most of it. One thing they could do: since there would be no rivals, the five rebels could announce that they won’t actually contest the election for re-entry to the council; instead, they would name five of their protégés or political mavericks to take part in the game, and these people would literally walk into the legislative council unhindered.
The Democratic Party would then reluctantly support and pass the “reform” proposal. With 70 legislative seats in two years’ time, that could mean more vacant jobs for the pan-democrats and a chance for the original five to come back later. Given the government’s impotence in handling an economy hijacked by property developers, time and opportunities are on the pan-democrats’ side.
It is time for these legislators to regain their sense of direction on the highway. To avoid a car crash, they must forget the rainbow in the sky for the time being, and concentrate on the next stop on the ground.
The campaign for a de-facto referendum as a result of a mini-mass resignation of five legislators seems to be running out of steam. The pan-democrats are deeply worried about a low turnout rate on May 16, after the Democratic Party decided to stay away from the heat and the pro-Beijing camp called for a total boycott of the by-election. If very few people get to the ballot box on polling day, the referendum will be reduced to a flop. The overwhelming majority of Hong Kong people have more or less accepted the fate handed down by Beijing that universal suffrage in 2012 (what these legislators are demanding) is now impossible. As Margaret Thatcher says, “Never get into a room until you know how to get out of it.” By forcing this referendum, the five rebels have put themselves on a highway to nowhere, but now it’s too late for them to stop.
But politics is a funny game. When things get gloomy, there is always a silver lining. Politics is not all just about holding idealistic philosophical positions and objectives for the long term, such as universal suffrage, but more about achieving short-term goals like seizing more seats in the legislature for the pro-democracy alliance in 2012. If they secured more than one-third of the seats, the pan-democrats would be in a strong position to bargain for their causes. If they win half, it would result in a de-facto coalition government.
China knows this well. That’s why they insist on half of the legislative seats coming from functional constituencies. Chief Executive Donald Tsang has proposed an increase of 10 more legislative seats from the present 60; five directly elected by the public, and five directly elected by district councilors—a move his government boasts of as inspired by the American electoral college system.
Let’s imagine it was someone like Chris Patten who was in charge of this take-it-or-leave-it challenge. What would the Brits have done if they were presented with this puzzle? My guess is they would accept the challenge; it’d be like working out a crossword, trying to outwit your challenger to make the most of it. One thing they could do: since there would be no rivals, the five rebels could announce that they won’t actually contest the election for re-entry to the council; instead, they would name five of their protégés or political mavericks to take part in the game, and these people would literally walk into the legislative council unhindered.
The Democratic Party would then reluctantly support and pass the “reform” proposal. With 70 legislative seats in two years’ time, that could mean more vacant jobs for the pan-democrats and a chance for the original five to come back later. Given the government’s impotence in handling an economy hijacked by property developers, time and opportunities are on the pan-democrats’ side.
It is time for these legislators to regain their sense of direction on the highway. To avoid a car crash, they must forget the rainbow in the sky for the time being, and concentrate on the next stop on the ground.
Labels: Politically Incorrect, 陶傑
posted by Gemini Saga at 12:00 AM
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